The North Pacific Fishery Management Council will meet in-person starting today at the Egan Center in Anchorage. The council will meet through Dec. 9.
Among the documents they will peruse are “report cards” for Alaska’s sablefish stock, and Gulf of Alaska Pacific cod stock. These report cards are based on data through 2024.
Sablefish numbers continue to be buoyed by a strong class from 2019. Here are some other factors that could determine the fate of sablefish statewide:
Surface temperatures in the Gulf of Alaska (GOA) and southeastern Bering Sea (SEBS) remain below average, with no recent heatwave events in the GOA. Unlike other species the historically warm water temperatures were beneficial to baby sablefish. Cooler conditions probably mean relatively slower larval sablefish growth.
Scientists actually keep track of the size of baby sablefish observed in seabird bill loads. While their size increased in 2023, it remained below the historical average, while growth was average in 2024.
The zooplankton community size was above average in the eastern GOA but below average in the western GOA in 2023, implying variable feeding conditions for larval and young-of-the-year (YOY) sablefish.
Catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE) or how many fish were caught per hook, or per pot for sablefish in nearshore surveys has declined since a peak in 2020 but remains above the historical average. The 2019 year class continues to drive the increase in the size of the stock. So far there is no evidence of another big cohort of new baby sablefish. However, high counts of small sablefish from the Bering Sea/Aleutian Islands (BSAI) fishery and above average numbers of them from the GOA bottom trawl survey in 2023 suggest a strong 2022 year class. But on the other hand, fishery counts of small sablefish were low in 2024. Also, incidental catch of sablefish in non-sablefish targeted fisheries decreased to a time series low in the GOA in 2024 and also decreased in the BSAI, although it remained above average.
The condition of the 2019 year-class and condition of large adult females in the longline survey were high in 2023, suggesting there were plenty of prey resources for both maturing and spawning fish. The condition of adult female sablefish in GOA fisheries declined slightly in 2024 but remained above average, though sample sizes were smaller compared to previous years.
The “spatial overlap” between the arrowtooth flounder population and sablefish migrating from open water to their adult habitats on the bottom decreased to slightly below average, suggesting less competition for newly arriving adults from their rival deep water predators.
Retained catch increased by 34% in 2022, reaching a historical peak of approximately 25 thousand metric tons (mt). Retained catch decreased slightly in 2023 (-3%) but remained above the historical range.
The proportion of sablefish caught by the Individual Fishing Quota (IFQ) fishery that were less than 2 pounds decreased, suggesting that the flood of itty-bitty sablefish in the fishery that has plagued harvesters could be growing up to a more market desirable size. This is supported by a proportional increase in sablefish in the 2-to-3 and 3-to-4-pound size categories. But the numbers of sablefish greater than 7 pounds decreased, continuing a trend of fewer big sablefish on the grounds.
Prices have been down. Ex-vessel prices of sablefish in 2024 averaged $1.53 per pound, a new historical low, and representing a decrease of 63% from the 2014 to 2018 average. Prices for sablefish have declined steadily since 2017 (excluding a spike in 2022) for each size category. This decline was more pronounced for big fish. The 2023 and 2024 average ex-vessel prices for the 5-to 7-pound and greater than 7-pound size categories declined more quickly than smaller size categories.
Full utilization of the Total Allowable Catch (TAC) has fallen, probably due to increases in catch levels that occurred when prices were falling and the proportion of the catch of the less desirable small fish increased. Despite record high total catch levels since 2022, TAC utilization is below the historical average for each subregion. Decreases in the average price per-pound, coupled with higher levels of uncaught quota, caused ex- vessel revenues of sablefish to decrease for the fourth of the past five years.
The residence of fishermen seems to be shifting. Based on vessel registration participation is declining for the Seattle Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) and increasing in Sitka. Based on landings by port, Sitka, Seward and Kodiak, remain the top participating communities in the sablefish fishery, although Kodiak and Seward have been declining in recent years.
Cod stocks seem to be holding steady In the Gulf of Alaska (GOA), for now. No major marine heatwave events have happened since the cod crash caused by the “blob” of warm water that occurred in 2014. But habitat suitability was a bit lower than average in 2024 due to the slightly warmer than average temperature at depth, which may have a small effect on egg survival.
Ex-vessel value for cod fishermen in the GOA decreased by 27% from 2022, falling below one-standard deviation of the historical range for the fifth time in the last six years. Revenue-per-unit-effort decreased from the historical high recorded in 2022, falling slightly below the historical average.
