Les Hodges for decades has tracked and reported on crab markets from Russian, Norway, Alaska, the US, China, South Korea, Canada and Japan. Below are excerpts that include Russian, Alaska, the US and Canada.
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A crab market overview –
The holiday period remains the most active stretch of the year for global king and snow crab, and this season is no different. Alaska red king crab has entered December holiday channels, while harvesters have now shifted to the largest bairdi (tanner) snow crab harvest seen in more than a decade. Prices for red and golden king crab remain at record highs and have shown little elasticity throughout the year despite broader economic uncertainty.
Attention across the industry has sharpened around the U.S. Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA), which becomes effective January 1, 2026. Norway, Canada, and Argentina are already recognized as equivalent and remain fully eligible for U.S. trade. No Russian crab fishery meets NOAA’s comparability standards, meaning Russian king and snow crab will remain ineligible for U.S. import under MMPA even in the event sanctions are lifted in the future.
U.S. demand continues to pull product away from other global markets. Snow crab imports have already surpassed full-year 2024 totals, supported by record Canadian and Norwegian shipments. With Asian demand contracting, more than 90% of Canada’s snow crab exports are now directed to the U.S., and Norwegian processors have expanded their U.S. footprint significantly. Through November, the Norwegian Seafood Council reports that 83% of frozen red king crab, 59% of snow crab, and 40% of live king crab were shipped to U.S. buyers. Japan’s presence has also grown: combined king and snow crab exports to the U.S. through November are up 135% from 2024.
China posted another strong month in October for Russian live king and snow crab, with imports up 15% year-on-year and a new record expected for 2025. Roughly 80% of Russian live crab continues to flow to China, with South Korea absorbing the remaining 20%. The frozen segment tells a different story—China’s frozen crab imports are down 35% from last year, led by a sharp decline in Canadian snow crab.
Japan remains Asia’s largest frozen crab buyer, but demand has weakened considerably. High prices, a soft yen, and cautious household spending have weighed on the market throughout 2025. Through October, total king and snow crab imports were 24% lower than the same period last year, reflecting ongoing economic headwinds.
Russian crab outlook –
Russia’s crab industry continues to expand production and shift toward live exports, supported by positive 2026 quota decisions and strong Asia demand. There has been some discussion about Russian crab possibly returning to the U.S. market if sanctions were removed in 2026.
Even if U.S. sanctions were lifted, Russian crab cannot enter the U.S. market under the Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA) rules in effect on January 1,2026. The U.S. will fully enforce the (MMPA) and no Russian king or snow crab fishery meets the required comparability standards. With no approved monitoring or bycatch reporting systems in place, Russian crab will remain barred from the U.S. market even if sanctions change, keeping Russia fully dependent on Asian buyers.
Alaska crab –
Alaska’s 2025/2026 crab fisheries are entering the heart of the season with stronger quotas across all major species. The golden king crab total allowable catch—including both IFQ and CDQ allocations—stands at 4.19 million pounds, with 3.32 million pounds east of 174°W and 870,000 pounds west of 174°W. This long-running fishery continues to provide stable supply as other species ramp up.
For red king crab, the combined IFQ and CDQ TAC increased 16% to 2.68 million pounds. Harvesters have landed roughly 2.39 mm pounds or 99% of the quota, and new-season product is moving into Seattle for reprocessing ahead of the holiday period.
Tanner (Bairdi) crab shows the most dramatic growth and is at the highest level since 2015/16. The TAC surged 113% to 11.25 million pounds, and with red king crab now effectively complete, vessels are transitioning into this fishery. The Eastern quota is 57% complete at 577k pounds with the Western quota 16% at 1.472mm pounds
Opilio snow crab TAC is also sharply higher—up 97% to 9.3 million pounds. One caveat is that processors are required to take approximately one million pounds of hybrid Tanner/Opilio crab as part of the season’s operations, which may influence product mix.
As usual, the sequence began with golden king crab this past summer, followed by red king crab and then bairdi snow crab. Opilio snow crab harvests typically begin in January, positioning Alaska to deliver strong volumes through early 2026.
United States crab market –
U.S. U.S. holiday spending is expected to grow only modestly this year, and restaurant traffic remains uneven—strong on weekends and special occasions yet softer mid-week. Within this environment, crab continues to outperform many other high-value seafood categories.
Red king crab pricing has surged 65–75% since January, yet demand has barely softened, underscoring how relatively inelastic this market remains. Snow crab shows a similar pattern: prices are up 11% from January while U.S. imports through August have increased 12.7%, already surpassing total 2024 volume. These gains come ahead of the largest Alaska bairdi snow crab harvest in a decade and a doubled Alaska opilio TAC, both of which will add meaningful volume to the first-quarter market.
Norway continues to lead U.S. king crab supply in 2025, while Japan has emerged as a fast-growing, unexpected contributor. Alaska red king crab is now entering a market already bolstered by Norwegian shipments, providing buyers with deeper inventories, better assortment, and more flexibility for December holiday programs.
Early reports point to strong holiday pull for Alaska red king crab, with prices holding firm. The significant reduction in Norway’s 2026 king crab quota should provide additional support to price levels through winter and into early spring.
As 2026 begins, U.S. availability will be shaped by the combined arrivals of Alaska king crab, bairdi, and opilio snow crab, alongside continued shipments of Norwegian king and snow crab. These fisheries will drive pricing until Canadian snow crab returns in Q2.
Canada crab overview –
Canada: Canada’s snow crab sector delivered a solid 2025 season. Final DFO harvest data confirms 18,208 M/t from the Gulf, 8,024 M/t from Nova Scotia, and 61,182 M/t from Newfoundland & Labrador—a combined 87,414 M/t. Quebec does not publish landings in real time, but with a TAC of 5,895 M/t, total Canadian production should exceed 90,000 M/t.
Supported by the USMCA trade framework, Canadian exporters maintained uninterrupted access to the U.S. market and leaned heavily into retail and foodservice channels. U.S. imports of Canadian snow crab through August reached 117.4 million lbs, up from 105.4 million lbs (+11%). This places 2025 on track to be Canada’s strongest U.S. snow crab year in more than a decade.
By contrast, Canada faced severe contractions in key non-U.S. markets. Exports to China collapsed 75 percent, falling from 4,036 M/t to 1,008 M/t, driven by the 25 percent Chinese tariff and China’s wider pullback in frozen crab imports. Exports to Japan dropped 49 percent to 2,088 M/t, pressured by weak consumer spending and yen-driven cost challenges. Combined, shipments to China and Japan are down 4,939 M/t, or nearly 11 million pounds, through October.
Given these international headwinds, Canada’s 2025 results have been almost entirely supported by U.S. demand.
On the supply side, processors report a shortage of smaller 5–8 oz clusters and an oversupply of 8 oz and larger product, a mismatch with current buyer preferences and retail pack requirements.
Looking ahead to early 2026, Canada’s position in the U.S. market will remain critical, as Asian recovery is unlikely to offset current tariff and currency pressures.
