Rationales and Council clarifications behind the numbers
At its December meeting, the North Pacific Fishery Management Council (NPFMC) gave the nod to a 1.375 million metric ton pollock harvest for 2025 and 2026 in the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands region (BSAI). That is a 5.8% increase over the 2024 catch and equates to more than three Billion pounds of Alaska pollock.
“The Total Allowable Catch (TAC) is only 57% of the Acceptable Biological Catch (ABC); thus the catch limit is still very conservative, even with a slight increase over 2024,” explained NPFMC executive director Dave Witherell in an email message.
According to federal fishery definition, a Council’s Scientific and Statistical Committee recommends a stock’s Acceptable Biological Catch (ABC). This catch limit is adjusted downward from the “overfishing limit” to account for scientific uncertainty. If an overfishing limit has not been identified, the committee may recommend an acceptable biological catch based on historical catch levels that are considered sustainable.
That appears to be the case for Bering Sea pollock.
Halibut Bycatch Limits Were Decreased
Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands halibut bycatch limits were decreased for 2025 to 3,079 metric tons (6,773,800 pounds) , down from 3,166 metric tons (6,965,200 pounds) in 2024.
The decrease stems from new bycatch restrictions on the Amendment 80 bottom trawl fleet which by far hauls aboard the bulk of the halibut bycatch. Starting in 2024 that fleet’s bycatch fluctuates depending on the ups and downs of the halibut resource, the rule that has always applied to all other commercial, sport and subsistence users.
In 2024, the share of halibut bycatch for the 19 Amendment 80 boats, all based in Seattle, was limited to 1,396 metric tons (3,071,200 pounds), the only fluctuating limit which is based on halibut abundance as indicated by NOAA Fisheries and the International Pacific Halibut Commission (IPHC) annual surveys, Witherell explained.
He added: “For 2025, the Amendment 80 halibut bycatch limit is 1,309 metric tons (2,879,800), a decrease from the previous year based on decreasing halibut biomass estimates in annual stock surveys.”
“The scientific staff doesn’t recommend bycatch limits; they are established in the regulations,” Witherell said. “These limits were not increased, but decreased based on abundance of halibut. The actual amount of halibut bycatch mortality has been well below the limits since 1997.”
The combined Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska allowance of halibut bycatch for 2025/2026 is 8,962,800 pounds.
[From https://spo.nmfs.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/pdf-content/mfr851-43.pdf]
Snow crab trawl bycatch set at “maximum threshold level”
After a two-year hiatus due to a collapse of the stock, the Bering Sea snow crab (opilio) fishery was opened for the 2024/2025 season with a harvest total of 4.72 million pounds, the smallest in the history of the fishery.
Previously, scientists had estimated that up to 11 billion snow crabs were lost due to a marine heat wave that appeared to spur a mass die-off, in part by causing the animals to starve. More recent bottom-trawl surveys revealed some encouraging signs in the abundance of snow crab, namely colder seafloor temperatures and a higher population of juvenile crabs.
That good news, along with a change in the stock assessment model, prompted the NPFMC to triple snow crab bycatch by trawlers to 12,850,000 animals – an increase from 4,350,000 snow crabs in 2024.
After the stock crashed, the NPFMC was required to create a 10 year rebuilding plan to comply with federal fisheries laws for groundfish in Alaska waters.
The impacts of bycatch on the snow crab stock are not considered in the rebuilding plan. The analysis states that “…fishing mortality is not the primary driver of the current snow crab population status…” Therefore, restrictions on human activities that directly result in crab mortality, whether directed fishing or bycatch, are considered effectively useless in the rebuilding of the stock.”
Trawl bycatch limits are based on abundance by regulation, Witherell said.
“In 2024, the opilio crab stock was assessed at a low level, putting bycatch at the minimum threshold level, and with a change in the assessment model adopted by the Scientific and Statistical Committee, the stock was assessed to be more abundant, such that the results put the bycatch limit at the maximum threshold level,” he explained.
The bycatch level is specified annually based on total abundance using the following criteria:
(A) Prohibited Species Catch Limit (PSC). The PSC limit will be 0.1133% of the total abundance, minus 150,000 opilio crabs, unless;
(B) Minimum PSC Limit. If 0.1133% multiplied by the total abundance is less than 4.5 million, then the minimum PSC limit will be 4.350 million animals; or
(C) Maximum PSC Limit. If 0.1133% multiplied by the total abundance is greater than 13 million, then the maximum PSC limit will be 12.850 million animals.
“So the jump is just a reflection of the change in crab abundance estimate and the regulatory specified limit,” Witherell explained, adding that “Catch to date against the limit as of December 7 was 507,101 crabs, well below the limit of 4,350,000 crabs. Bycatch of snow crab has been a tiny fraction of these bycatch limits in the last 20 years.
[From https://spo.nmfs.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/pdf-content/mfr851-43.pdf]
