Bristol Bay forecast calls for “strong” 2025 sockeye salmon run

The Bristol Bay sockeye salmon forecast for 2025 is nearly 35 million fish. Value of the 2024 catch was well below the 20 year average to fishermen.

by | November 11, 2024

Preliminary value of 2024 fishery to fishermen was 34% below 20 year average

Fishery managers predict that a total of 51.31 million sockeye salmon will return to Bristol Bay in 2025.

That would be 16% smaller than the most recent 10-year average of 61.23 million fish and 38% greater than the long-term average of 37.07 million fish (1963–2024). All systems are expected to meet their spawning escapement goals in 2025.

A run of 51.31 million sockeye salmon would allow for a potential harvest of 36.33 million fish: 34.78 million fish in Bristol Bay and 1.55 million fish in the South Peninsula June fishery.

A Bristol Bay inshore harvest of this size is 15% less than the most recent 10-year average harvest of 40.91 million (ranging from 31.61 to 60.23 million), and 50% greater than the long term average harvest of 23.27 million fish (1963–2024).

The ADF&G announcement in full is HERE –

Here’s ADF&G’s summary of the 2024 Bristol Bay salmon fishery

The 2024 inshore Bristol Bay sockeye salmon run of 51.6 million fish (Table 1) was the 10th largest inshore
run since 2004 and was 7% above the 48.2 million average run for the latest 20-year period. This is the 10th year in a row that the total inshore run was larger than 50 million fish.

The 2024 Bristol Bay sockeye salmon run was 36% above the preseason inshore forecast of 37.9 million
fish. Runs to every district were larger than their preseason forecasts. All sockeye salmon escapement goals were met or exceeded, with a total bay-wide escapement of 20.0 million fish.

The commercial harvest of 31.6 million sockeye salmon was 26% above the 25.0 million preseason
forecast. The preliminary harvest estimates for other species are 6,895 Chinook, 506,541 chum,
28,804 coho, and 76,199 pink salmon.


2024 EX-VESSEL VALUE

Exvessel value of salmon caught in Bristol Bay in 2024 was estimated using the price information from
final operations reports for each species, and numbers and average weights from preliminary fish ticket
numbers.

The 2024 Bristol Bay preliminary exvessel value of $128.1 million for all salmon species was 34% below the 20-year average of $193.4 million. Prices may not include incentives for icing, bleeding, floating, or production bonuses.

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About Laine

Laine Welch has covered the Alaska fish beat for print and radio since 1988. She also has worked “behind the counter” at retail and wholesale seafood companies in Kodiak and on Cape Cod.

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