Bristol Bay 2024 sockeye salmon harvest forecast dips 39%

Harvest forecast calls for 25.01 million reds at Bristol Bay; 1.10 million at the South Peninsula.

by | November 5, 2023

Filed Under Forecasts | Management | Salmon

A run of 39 million reds is expected to return to Bristol Bay

The Alaska Dept. of Fish and Game on Nov. 3 announced the Bristol Bay sockeye salmon forecast. LINK HERE

Here is a brief summary:

A total of 39.00 million sockeye salmon (with a range of 24.89 to 53.12 million) are expected to
return to Bristol Bay in 2024. This is 35% smaller than the most recent 10-year average
of 60.20 million fish and 6% greater than the long-term average of 36.83 million fish (1963–2023).

All systems are expected to meet their spawning escapement goals in 2024. The forecast range is
the upper and lower values of the 80% confidence interval for the total run forecast. The confidence
bounds were calculated from the difference between actual runs and run forecasts from 2005
through 2023.


A run of 39.00 million sockeye salmon would allow for a potential harvestable surplus of 26.11
million fish; 25.01 million fish in Bristol Bay and 1.10 million fish in the South Peninsula June
fishery.

A Bristol Bay inshore harvest of this size is 39% less than the most recent 10-year average
harvest of 40.72 million (ranging from 28.75 to 60.52 million), and 8% greater than the long-term
average harvest of 23.15 million fish (1963–2023).

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About Laine

Laine Welch has covered the Alaska fish beat for print and radio since 1988. She also has worked “behind the counter” at retail and wholesale seafood companies in Kodiak and on Cape Cod.

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