Catches, sockeye weights are projected to increased
Fishery forecasters are projecting that the 2025 sockeye salmon catch at Bristol Bay will top this year’s take, and that fish weights will be heftier.
An August 19 “advisory” preseason forecast from biologists at the Universities of Washington and Fairbanks (UW-FRI) calls for a run of 49.6 million sockeye salmon to return to Bristol Bay, 18% below the 2013-2023 (10-year) average of 60.1 million sockeye, and nearly equal to the 2003-2023 average.
A run of 49.6 million would produce a projected harvest of 32.4 million sockeyes. That compares to a Bay sockeye harvest this season of just over 31 million reds, which exceeded the preseason projection of 25.01 million fish.
Preliminary information suggests that 39% of the 2025 total Bristol Bay run will be 2-ocean sockeye and 61% 3-ocean sockeye.
The average weight of the sockeye salmon in 2025 is projected to be 5.7 pounds for a total harvest bulk of 185.3 million pounds. That would be well above the 4.2 pounds on average from this summer, the smallest sockeye weight ever seen based on historical data going back to the 1970s.
The preseason forecast for sockeye salmon abundance in 2025 is based upon data available at the time of the last daily in-season release (late-July 2024) from the Alaska Department of Fish and Game (ADF&G).
“As this preliminary preseason forecast is made prior to both finalized inseason data for the 2024 run and the formal run reconstruction process, this should be considered an advisory rather than a formal forecast given its lower accuracy and aggregated summary across stocks,” the report stated.
The standard UW-FRI Preseason Forecast that will be released in November will include 2025 sockeye
abundance estimates by age class for all nine rivers in Bristol Bay, and the anticipated 2025 harvest in
numbers and pounds.
